← ProjectCCG Store Championships - 02-16-2025
Water AlliesTier 1
at ProjectCCG Store Championships - 02-16-2025
decks
2
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-4-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.5%
avg ELO +4.1 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1334
· median 1334
· range 1333–1335
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1333
Q3 1516
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
