← 11/17 AMB Store Championship TGCShuffle

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 11/17 AMB Store Championship TGCShuffle . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Ravishing Mill 1 9.1% 4 87.5% 66.9% 59.3% 58.4% 1264
2 Fire Crux Mage 2 18.2% 8 68.8% 57.2% 59.2% 56.3% 1367
3 Wind Crux Mage 1 9.1% 3 66.7% 58.8% 57.8% 58.9% 1417 ↑ top
4 Water Astra Cleric 2 18.2% 8 50.0% 52.4% 48.0% 49.6% 1486 ↑ top
5 Wind Shadowstrike 1 9.1% 3 33.3% 44.2% 44.0% 44.8% 1309
6 Fire Exia 2 18.2% 5 30.0% 41.1% 43.3% 44.7% 1250 ↓ low
7 Wind Astra Cleric 1 9.1% 4 25.0% 38.4% 43.3% 43.8% 1170 ↓ low
8 Fire Tonoris 1 9.1% 3 16.7% 35.9% 42.5% 42.6% 1099 ↓ low