Water AlliesTier 2
at AMB Store Championship
decks
3
(17.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-8-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1324
· median 1268
· range 1126–1578
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1212
Q3 1425
1607
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
