Water Penguin MillTier 1
at AMB Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-1-1
overall winrate
81.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
65.2%
avg ELO +7.3 per match
expected value
58.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1425
· median 1425
· range 1425–1425
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1212
Q3 1425
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
