Water Crux MageTier 1
at AMB Store Championship
decks
1
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1381
· median 1381
· range 1381–1381
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1212
Q3 1425
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 17.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Kongming | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
