Water NeosTier 1
at Mystery Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
55.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1461
· median 1461
· range 1461–1461
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1176
Q1 1284
Q3 1453
1607
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 21.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 14.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
