← The End Games Grand Archive AMB Store Championship
Water Crux MerlinTier 2
at The End Games Grand Archive AMB Store Championship
decks
1
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1006
· median 1006
· range 1006–1006
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1006
Q1 1167
Q3 1357
1388
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Water Neos Tonoris | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
