← Game Nut Mortal Ambition Regional
Fire ArisannaTier 2
at Game Nut Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.7%
avg ELO -5.0 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1214
· range 1214–1214
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1127
Q1 1192
Q3 1341
1578
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 16.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 13.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Water Allies | 13.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
