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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 34.1% | -8.5 |
| Water Allies | 13.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 51.5% | +0.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.9% | -8.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Diana | 2.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Water Slimes | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |