← Game Nut Mortal Ambition Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Game Nut Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
4
(10.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
8-12-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.5%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1180
· median 1169
· range 1127–1256
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1127
Q1 1192
Q3 1341
1578
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 16.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -10.0 |
| Slimes | 13.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Water Allies | 13.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.9% | +17.2 |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Diana | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
