← Game Nut Mortal Ambition Regional
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Game Nut Mortal Ambition Regional
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.9%
avg ELO +5.3 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1396–1396
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1127
Q1 1192
Q3 1341
1578
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 16.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Slimes | 13.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 13.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
