← Paradox AMBStore Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Paradox AMBStore Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-2-0
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.0%
avg ELO +7.0 per match
expected value
57.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1525
· median 1525
· range 1525–1525
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1310
Q3 1368
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 21.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 10.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Slimes | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Silvie | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Penguin Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
