← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-4-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1282
· median 1282
· range 1181–1383
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1133
Q3 1375
1472
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
