← Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Grand Archive TCG Store Championship
decks
4
(13.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
8-10-3
overall winrate
45.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.7%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1204
· median 1242
· range 941–1391
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1133
Q3 1375
1472
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 24.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 13.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.3% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 59.3% | +5.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 42.9% | -5.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
