Water AlliesTier 2
at AMB Store Championship
decks
3
(15.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-7-3
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.6%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1327
· range 1126–1578
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1226
Q3 1428
1607
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Arisanna | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Water Diana | 5.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
