Water Penguin MillTier 1
at AMB Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Water Diana | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.9% | +9.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |