Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at AMB Store Championship
decks
2
(10.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.8%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1150
· median 1150
· range 1142–1157
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1226
Q3 1428
1607
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 15.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 15.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Exia | 10.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 5.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Allies | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
