EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regionals - Mortal Ambition - Wilczek. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Ravishing Mill

59.5%

10.3% share · 19 matches

6.9% share · 15 matches

6.9% share · 9 matches

↓ low

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Allies	2	6.9%	15	76.7%	61.6%	59.5%	54.8%	1444	↑ top
2	Water Ravishing Mill	3	10.3%	19	68.4%	55.5%	59.5%	54.3%	1394	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Mage	2	6.9%	9	66.7%	69.3%	54.0%	57.1%	1202	↓ low
4	Water Penguin Mill	3	10.3%	16	56.2%	60.7%	51.2%	53.2%	1288	—
5	Water Umbra Diana	1	3.4%	6	66.7%	61.2%	50.9%	51.9%	1332	↑ top
6	Wind Astra Cleric	1	3.4%	5	50.0%	48.4%	50.0%	48.6%	1402	↑ top
7	Wind Shadowstrike	2	6.9%	9	38.9%	41.4%	50.0%	48.6%	1346	↑ top
8	Fire Exia	2	6.9%	10	40.0%	45.1%	48.3%	49.1%	1154	↓ low
9	Fire Slimes	1	3.4%	5	50.0%	41.0%	47.9%	43.5%	1468	↑ top
10	Wind Razorgale	2	6.9%	10	30.0%	35.9%	47.3%	47.1%	1088	↓ low
11	Fire Arcane	1	3.4%	5	40.0%	46.4%	47.1%	47.7%	1364	↑ top
12	Slimes	6	20.7%	21	38.1%	44.9%	43.0%	45.7%	1191	↓ low
13	Wind Tera Silvie	1	3.4%	5	20.0%	35.5%	42.0%	42.8%	1200	↓ low
14	Wind Allies	1	3.4%	5	20.0%	43.0%	40.0%	43.6%	1045	↓ low
15	Fire Aggro	1	3.4%	2	0.0%	33.8%	40.0%	40.3%	1197	↓ low