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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weebly 11/21/2024 7 PM Central
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 51.2% | +0.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Wind Cats | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.2% | -1.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |