← Yeti Gaming Webcam Weebly 11/21/2024 7 PM Central
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Weebly 11/21/2024 7 PM Central
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Slimes | 13.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 52.3% | +1.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Sunken Past | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stream of Consciousness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Mending | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Give Bath | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mistbound Cutthroat | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primal Whip | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perfect Repulsion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ocean's Blessing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |