EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at GA Regionals November 30th.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 4 | 19.0% | 13 | 84.6% | 67.2% | 62.2% | 58.7% | 1312 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 75.0% | 64.7% | 56.7% | 56.5% | 1202 | — |
| 3 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 4.8% | 6 | 83.3% | 65.8% | 55.0% | 54.7% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 50.0% | 48.9% | 50.0% | 50.3% | 1225 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.9% | 48.0% | 52.3% | 1186 | — |
| 6 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 4.8% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 48.8% | 1077 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Water Allies | 3 | 14.3% | 14 | 53.6% | 46.0% | 46.2% | 45.0% | 1270 | — |
| 8 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.2% | 46.0% | 47.6% | 1239 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.2% | 45.7% | 46.2% | 1278 | — |
| 10 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.2% | 45.7% | 47.3% | 1205 | — |
| 11 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.8% | 5 | 40.0% | 53.1% | 45.6% | 50.0% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Cats | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 12.5% | 34.6% | 41.7% | 42.7% | 1294 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Diana | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 0.0% | 37.7% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.0% | 44.1% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1191 | — |
| 15 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.1% | 40.0% | 40.9% | 1039 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 4.8% | 1 | 0.0% | 40.2% | 40.0% | 40.2% | 1253 | — |
| 17 | Slimes | 1 | 4.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 42.1% | 38.9% | 42.6% | 1111 | ↓ low |