Water Penguin MillTier 1
at IanTCG Regional
decks
4
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
12-3-3
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
71.0%
avg ELO +8.2 per match
expected value
60.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
61.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1394
· median 1400
· range 1283–1493
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1200
Q3 1409
1520
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 13.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.7% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.5% | +12.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.8% | +8.0 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.2% | +8.9 |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
