Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at IanTCG Regional
decks
4
(13.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
6-9-4
overall winrate
42.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1277
· median 1292
· range 1193–1333
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1078
Q1 1200
Q3 1409
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Slimes | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.3 |
| Fire Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Exia | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
