Fire AggroTier 2
at AMB Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.1% | -10.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flashfire Horse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Shieldmaiden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Warcry | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Into the Fray | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |