Water AlliesTier 1
at AMB Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% | -18.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Hired Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowdancer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mandate of Honor | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |