← Tabletop Village Store Championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Tabletop Village Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Slimes 1 5.3% 7 92.9% 59.9% 62.4% 54.7% 1327
2 Fire Slimes 1 5.3% 6 66.7% 69.5% 54.3% 57.1% 1352
3 Water Ravishing Mill 1 5.3% 6 66.7% 53.1% 54.3% 50.9% 1436 ↑ top
4 Water Allies 1 5.3% 5 70.0% 47.2% 52.9% 48.3% 1548 ↑ top
5 Wind Astra Cleric 2 10.5% 12 50.0% 56.3% 52.4% 53.8% 1329
6 Wind Razorgale 2 10.5% 9 61.1% 56.2% 52.2% 51.4% 1379 ↑ top
7 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 5.3% 4 50.0% 46.9% 52.0% 50.7% 1331
8 Wind Allies 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 54.3% 52.0% 51.6% 1367
9 Water Astra Cleric 1 5.3% 3 33.3% 43.3% 50.0% 49.6% 1195 ↓ low
10 Fire Arcane 1 5.3% 5 50.0% 53.2% 48.6% 50.1% 1471 ↑ top
11 Water Luxem Assassin 1 5.3% 5 40.0% 47.8% 46.7% 47.8% 1323
12 Water Arisanna 1 5.3% 5 40.0% 46.6% 45.3% 46.7% 1357
13 Fire Crux Mage 2 10.5% 8 37.5% 45.5% 45.2% 46.7% 1254 ↓ low
14 Wind Slimes 1 5.3% 5 10.0% 31.4% 41.7% 43.0% 1100 ↓ low
15 Fire Exia 1 5.3% 5 10.0% 34.0% 41.4% 44.0% 1298
16 Water Tera Mage 1 5.3% 2 0.0% 38.4% 40.0% 42.4% 1203 ↓ low