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Water Ravishing MillTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 22.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 32.6% | -13.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powercell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |