Water Crux MageTier 1
at Store Championship
decks
1
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-2-1
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.0%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
53.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1393
· median 1393
· range 1393–1393
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1031
Q1 1197
Q3 1369
1536
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
