Water Penguin MillTier 2
at Store Championship
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Wind Allies | 13.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 13.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 35.9% | -13.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 7 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 7 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |