Fire AggroTier 2
at QLD Regionals
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
4-1-2
overall winrate
71.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.8%
avg ELO +4.9 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1563
· median 1563
· range 1563–1563
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1208
Q3 1369
1563
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.0% | +10.5 |
| Slimes | 15.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
