Fire ExiaTier 2
at QLD Regionals
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-5-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1235
· median 1235
· range 1134–1336
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1208
Q3 1369
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Slimes | 15.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
