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Fire Crux MageTier 2

at Apex AMB Store Champ

decks
4 (15.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15 7-8-0
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9% avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
44.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337 · median 1321 · range 1122–1584 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1087 Q1 1165 Q3 1393 1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Penguin Mill 19.2% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 34.1% -10.1
Slimes 11.5% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 39.9% -9.7
Water Allies 7.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.1% +9.7
Water Ravishing Mill 7.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.7% +21.9
Wind Astra Cleric 7.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.1% -4.7
Fire Aggro 3.8% 0
Fire Slimes 3.8% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Water Arisanna 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.5% +16.8
Water Crux Lorraine 3.8% 0
Water Overlord 3.8% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.1% +9.7
Wind Razorgale 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.1% -14.3
Wind Shadowstrike 3.8% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.6
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Mnemonic Charm -1.00 0 1 0
Under Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Heavenly Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Thunderclap -1.00 0 1 0
Set Ablaze +1.00 1 0 0
Disintegrate +1.00 1 0 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Sudden Steel +1.00 1 0 0
Favorable Winds +1.00 1 0 0
Incapacitate +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0
Unbroken Mustang -1.00 0 1 0
Incarnate Majesty -1.00 0 1 0
Repelling Palmblast -1.00 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/15900/archetypes/Fire Crux Mage