Water ArisannaTier 2
at Apex AMB Store Champ
decks
1
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
2
0-2-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
31.6%
avg ELO -17.7 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1145
· median 1145
· range 1145–1145
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1165
Q3 1393
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 19.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Arisanna decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
