Water AlliesTier 2
at Apex AMB Store Champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 19.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 59 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 59 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sinister Mindreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rainweaver Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lena, Dorumegia's Herald | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swerving Spring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |