Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Apex AMB Store Champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 65.9% | +10.1 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.1% | +7.5 |
| Water Allies | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Water Arisanna | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 12 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 12 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Avalon, Cursed Isle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |