← MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-4-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1492
· median 1492
· range 1436–1548
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1174
Q1 1261
Q3 1416
1548
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 16.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.1% | +10.7 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
