MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Allies	Tier 1	2	16.7%	6-4-0	60.0%	49.9%	51.8%	48.2%	1492	↑ top
2		Water Penguin Mill	Tier 1	2	16.7%	6-2-2	70.0%	64.9%	57.0%	57.3%	1331	—
3		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	2	16.7%	4-5-0	44.4%	48.3%	47.5%	48.6%	1310	—
4		Slimes	Tier 2	1	8.3%	0-2-0	0.0%	36.4%	40.0%	41.8%	1174	↓ low
5		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	8.3%	1-3-0	25.0%	43.0%	45.3%	48.1%	1423	↑ top
6		Water Fractal	Tier 1	1	8.3%	3-1-1	70.0%	54.2%	55.6%	52.0%	1367	—
7		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	8.3%	1-1-2	50.0%	46.8%	48.3%	47.1%	1330	—
8		Wind Allies	Tier 2	1	8.3%	0-2-1	16.7%	40.3%	42.0%	45.2%	1270	↓ low
9		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 2	1	8.3%	0-1-2	33.3%	51.3%	45.0%	49.2%	1234	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Allies 2 decks · 16.7%
• Water Penguin Mill 2 decks · 16.7%
• Water Ravishing Mill 2 decks · 16.7%
• Slimes 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Fractal 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Shadowstrike 1 deck · 8.3%