← MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-2-2
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.9%
avg ELO +6.7 per match
expected value
57.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331
· median 1331
· range 1317–1345
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1174
Q1 1261
Q3 1416
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.9% | +8.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +14.4 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.8% | +7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
