← MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at MSG Mortal Ambition Store Championship
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.3%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1310
· range 1207–1414
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1174
Q1 1261
Q3 1416
1548
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 16.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.0% | -14.4 |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 8.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
