EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at NPL Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 8 | 87.5% | 66.8% | 60.0% | 56.5% | 1427 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Penguin Mill | 1 | 8.3% | 8 | 62.5% | 52.1% | 55.2% | 51.8% | 1509 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 16.7% | 10 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 52.1% | 51.4% | 1322 | — |
| 4 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 8.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 50.9% | 52.0% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Slimes | 3 | 25.0% | 14 | 50.0% | 48.3% | 50.2% | 49.5% | 1356 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.6% | 48.3% | 50.0% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 2 | 16.7% | 9 | 38.9% | 48.4% | 46.0% | 48.0% | 1293 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 8.3% | 5 | 0.0% | 31.2% | 37.1% | 41.2% | 1038 | ↓ low |