EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mox Valley ALC Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 10.0% | 19 | 76.3% | 70.0% | 57.1% | 56.7% | 1294 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 3.3% | 7 | 78.6% | 65.0% | 55.2% | 53.8% | 1327 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Allies | 4 | 13.3% | 24 | 54.2% | 50.5% | 55.0% | 53.4% | 1294 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 3.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.7% | 54.6% | 54.8% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.3% | 7 | 64.3% | 57.3% | 53.2% | 52.8% | 1314 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.3% | 51.7% | 51.7% | 1308 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Beast | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 58.0% | 51.4% | 53.5% | 1091 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.8% | 50.9% | 52.7% | 1051 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 16.7% | 23 | 52.2% | 50.0% | 48.7% | 48.5% | 1262 | — |
| 10 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 44.7% | 46.9% | 47.1% | 1318 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 10.0% | 11 | 45.5% | 50.4% | 46.8% | 47.9% | 1230 | — |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 6.7% | 10 | 40.0% | 42.6% | 46.6% | 46.8% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 6.7% | 11 | 36.4% | 43.1% | 45.3% | 46.9% | 1278 | — |
| 14 | Wind Allies | 2 | 6.7% | 6 | 25.0% | 37.3% | 43.8% | 44.9% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 3.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 39.3% | 42.3% | 42.6% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 33.4% | 41.0% | 42.0% | 1241 | — |
| 17 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 3.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 26.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | 1119 | ↓ low |