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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.6% | -1.4 |
| Slimes | 13.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 31.2% | -12.0 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |