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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 20.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Slimes | 13.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Fire Exia | 6.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.4% | +4.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 |