EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Yeti Webcam Weekly 1/16/2025. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Crux Mage

55.3%

8.3% share · 11 matches

5.6% share · 6 matches

11.1% share · 14 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Razorgale	2	5.6%	6	100.0%	52.1%	61.5%	50.8%	1468	↑ top
2	Fire Crux Mage	3	8.3%	11	63.6%	50.5%	55.3%	50.3%	1398	↑ top
3	Water Allies	4	11.1%	14	57.1%	50.4%	52.7%	50.2%	1309	—
4	Water Exia	1	2.8%	4	50.0%	50.3%	51.4%	50.2%	1360	—
5	Fire Aggro	3	8.3%	12	54.2%	49.7%	50.7%	49.8%	1370	—
6	Water Ravishing Mill	2	5.6%	7	50.0%	50.9%	49.7%	50.4%	1297	—
7	Fire Exia	3	8.3%	6	50.0%	50.2%	49.4%	50.0%	1235	↓ low
8	Water Penguin Mill	4	11.1%	16	56.2%	50.0%	49.3%	49.8%	1381	—
9	Slimes	3	8.3%	8	50.0%	50.4%	49.2%	50.1%	1347	—
10	Wind Astra Cleric	3	8.3%	10	45.0%	50.1%	47.8%	50.0%	1296	—
11	Wind Overlord	1	2.8%	3	33.3%	49.1%	46.0%	49.5%	1159	↓ low
12	Wind Shadowstrike	4	11.1%	15	33.3%	49.3%	44.5%	49.7%	1217	↓ low
13	Wind Crux Lorraine	1	2.8%	4	25.0%	48.7%	44.0%	49.4%	1439	↑ top
14	Water Tera Mage	1	2.8%	4	12.5%	48.3%	42.3%	49.3%	1144	↓ low
15	Wind Umbra Diana	1	2.8%	2	0.0%	48.7%	40.0%	49.3%	1381	—