Water AlliesTier 1
at Cancon 2025 Regionals
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-0-3
overall winrate
85.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.4%
avg ELO +5.5 per match
expected value
59.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1571
· median 1571
· range 1452–1689
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1185
Q3 1441
1702
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 22.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.0 |
| Slimes | 11.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -6.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
