Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Cancon 2025 Regionals
decks
6
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
11-10-5
overall winrate
51.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.4%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
50.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1289
· median 1279
· range 1144–1456
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1185
Q3 1441
1702
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.9 |
| Water Arisanna | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Water Slimes | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
