Water Tera MageTier 2
at Cancon 2025 Regionals
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
47.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1188
· median 1188
· range 1188–1188
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1185
Q3 1441
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Ravishing Mill | 22.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Slimes | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
