Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at Mortal Ambition Regionals
decks
2
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-7-0
overall winrate
22.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.2%
avg ELO -7.3 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1281
· range 1159–1402
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1161
Q3 1397
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Slimes | 11.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Allies | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Allies | 3.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
