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Water Crux MageTier 2
at AMB Store Championship Greenbelt
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 15.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.8% | -10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.1% | -5.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mind Freeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coriolis Ward | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rising Tides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Majestic Spirit's Crest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |