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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Crux Mage | 9.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.2% | +10.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.8% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 57.1% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Wind Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rimesoul Bishop | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |